Recent polling averages project the center-right PP and far-right Vox together securing 190–205 seats in Spain’s 350-seat Congress ahead of the November 29 snap election, comfortably above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority in nearly all simulations. This positioning stems from sustained voter shifts toward the right-wing bloc since the 2023 vote, with Vox roughly doubling its projected representation while the PSOE-led left remains fragmented after failed unification attempts among Sumar, Podemos, and allied parties. Sánchez’s October decision to call early elections amid housing protests and other pressures has not reversed the trend in most surveys, though one recent tracker showed the Socialists narrowly ahead in vote share. The resulting trader consensus on a PP–Vox majority reflects these stable seat projections and limited remaining campaign volatility.