Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has reinforced trader expectations for a prolonged Fed hold, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the clear leader with a 59.7% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and 4.3% unemployment underscore labor-market resilience that limits near-term easing, aligning with brokerages such as Bank of America now forecasting no cuts through 2026 and the CME FedWatch tool showing roughly 71% odds of unchanged policy by year-end. The Fed’s March Summary of Economic Projections median path implied a lower terminal rate, yet fresh inflation data have shifted market-implied odds toward stability at or modestly above the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which will further shape probabilities around the 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড৩.৭৫% 59.7%
৪.০% 17.7%
৩.২৫% 8%
৩.৫% 7%
$6,523,807 Vol.
$6,523,807 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤১.০%
<1%
১.২৫
1%
১.৫%
<1%
১.৭৫%
1%
২.০%
<1%
২.২৫%
<1%
২.৫%
1%
২.৭৫%
1%
৩.০%
4%
৩.২৫%
8%
৩.৫%
7%
৩.৭৫%
60%
৪.০%
18%
৪.২৫%
6%
≥ ৪.৫%
1%
৩.৭৫% 59.7%
৪.০% 17.7%
৩.২৫% 8%
৩.৫% 7%
$6,523,807 Vol.
$6,523,807 Vol.
Dec 9, 2026
≤১.০%
$216,014 Vol.
<1%
১.২৫
$134,363 Vol.
1%
১.৫%
$134,117 Vol.
<1%
১.৭৫%
$134,015 Vol.
1%
২.০%
$246,062 Vol.
<1%
২.২৫%
$70,849 Vol.
<1%
২.৫%
$158,852 Vol.
1%
২.৭৫%
$46,024 Vol.
1%
৩.০%
$454,840 Vol.
4%
৩.২৫%
$51,537 Vol.
8%
৩.৫%
$190,202 Vol.
7%
৩.৭৫%
$518,453 Vol.
60%
৪.০%
$1,358,661 Vol.
18%
৪.২৫%
$413,730 Vol.
6%
≥ ৪.৫%
$2,396,088 Vol.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has reinforced trader expectations for a prolonged Fed hold, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the clear leader with a 59.7% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and 4.3% unemployment underscore labor-market resilience that limits near-term easing, aligning with brokerages such as Bank of America now forecasting no cuts through 2026 and the CME FedWatch tool showing roughly 71% odds of unchanged policy by year-end. The Fed’s March Summary of Economic Projections median path implied a lower terminal rate, yet fresh inflation data have shifted market-implied odds toward stability at or modestly above the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which will further shape probabilities around the 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$6,523,807শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has reinforced trader expectations for a prolonged Fed hold, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the clear leader with a 59.7% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and 4.3% unemployment underscore labor-market resilience that limits near-term easing, aligning with brokerages such as Bank of America now forecasting no cuts through 2026 and the CME FedWatch tool showing roughly 71% odds of unchanged policy by year-end. The Fed’s March Summary of Economic Projections median path implied a lower terminal rate, yet fresh inflation data have shifted market-implied odds toward stability at or modestly above the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which will further shape probabilities around the 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
ভলিউম
$6,523,807শেষ তারিখ
Dec 9, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated April 2026 CPI at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has reinforced trader expectations for a prolonged Fed hold, positioning the 3.75% federal funds rate as the clear leader with a 59.7% implied probability. Recent nonfarm payrolls of 115,000 and 4.3% unemployment underscore labor-market resilience that limits near-term easing, aligning with brokerages such as Bank of America now forecasting no cuts through 2026 and the CME FedWatch tool showing roughly 71% odds of unchanged policy by year-end. The Fed’s March Summary of Economic Projections median path implied a lower terminal rate, yet fresh inflation data have shifted market-implied odds toward stability at or modestly above the current 3.50%-3.75% range. Key catalysts ahead include the June 16-17 FOMC meeting and May CPI release, which will further shape probabilities around the 3.75% and 4.0% outcomes.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা