Recent bilateral security cooperation under Colombia’s new president Abelardo de la Espriella, inaugurated in August 2026, anchors trader expectations against a U.S. invasion. The right-wing leader’s alignment with the Trump administration has produced a $1 billion security assistance package, joint counternarcotics planning under Plan Patriota 2.0, Colombia’s entry into the Shield of the Americas coalition, and September talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on intelligence sharing, equipment modernization, and possible coordinated operations against narcoterrorist groups, all requiring Colombian consent. Earlier 2026 tensions under the prior administration have given way to institutional partnership focused on shared border and trafficking threats. While an abrupt policy reversal, major escalation involving Venezuela, or unauthorized unilateral action could theoretically alter the trajectory before December 31, current diplomatic and military coordination makes such developments improbable within the resolution window.