The high probability that National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir will remain in office through June 30 stems from the Israeli High Court’s April 2026 rulings, which imposed temporary limits on his police-related powers but declined to order Prime Minister Netanyahu to dismiss him despite petitions alleging interference in promotions and operations. Netanyahu’s coalition stability depends on retaining the support of Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party, and recent public actions—including his May Temple Mount visit asserting Israeli sovereignty and policy on Jewish prayer—show him continuing to exercise ministerial authority without signs of resignation or imminent removal. Traders’ consensus reflects these institutional and political barriers, though future court developments or coalition shifts could still alter the timeline.