Recent energy price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict and associated supply disruptions have weighed heavily on euro area activity, driving the market-implied probability of 0-1.0% GDP growth for 2026 to 48.1% as the leading outcome. Official forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, and others cluster around 0.8-1.1% for the full year, following 1.4-1.5% expansion in 2025, amid modest Q2 2026 quarterly growth of 0.4% and year-over-year readings near 1.0%. Persistent inflation above target, reflected in rising Treasury yields and cautious ECB policy expectations, along with lingering trade frictions, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion. A June Iran-US ceasefire agreement has eased some downside risks by lowering near-term energy costs, yet forward-looking data releases through year-end remain key swing factors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert0–1,0 % 56.8%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.5%
4,0–5,0 % 3.9%
$29,385 Vol.
$29,385 Vol.
31. Jan. 2027
<0 %
5%
0–1,0 %
57%
1,0-2,0 %
25%
2,0-3,0 %
1%
3,0-4,0 %
<1%
4,0–5,0 %
4%
5,0-6,0 %
<1%
6,0–7,0 %
<1%
7,0 %+
<1%
0–1,0 % 56.8%
1,0-2,0 % 25%
<0 % 4.5%
4,0–5,0 % 3.9%
$29,385 Vol.
$29,385 Vol.
31. Jan. 2027
<0 %
$1,623 Vol.
5%
0–1,0 %
$11,133 Vol.
57%
1,0-2,0 %
$6,976 Vol.
25%
2,0-3,0 %
$1,131 Vol.
1%
3,0-4,0 %
$1,047 Vol.
<1%
4,0–5,0 %
$2,134 Vol.
4%
5,0-6,0 %
$1,136 Vol.
<1%
6,0–7,0 %
$2,599 Vol.
<1%
7,0 %+
$1,606 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict and associated supply disruptions have weighed heavily on euro area activity, driving the market-implied probability of 0-1.0% GDP growth for 2026 to 48.1% as the leading outcome. Official forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, and others cluster around 0.8-1.1% for the full year, following 1.4-1.5% expansion in 2025, amid modest Q2 2026 quarterly growth of 0.4% and year-over-year readings near 1.0%. Persistent inflation above target, reflected in rising Treasury yields and cautious ECB policy expectations, along with lingering trade frictions, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion. A June Iran-US ceasefire agreement has eased some downside risks by lowering near-term energy costs, yet forward-looking data releases through year-end remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volumen
$29,385Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent energy price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict and associated supply disruptions have weighed heavily on euro area activity, driving the market-implied probability of 0-1.0% GDP growth for 2026 to 48.1% as the leading outcome. Official forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, and others cluster around 0.8-1.1% for the full year, following 1.4-1.5% expansion in 2025, amid modest Q2 2026 quarterly growth of 0.4% and year-over-year readings near 1.0%. Persistent inflation above target, reflected in rising Treasury yields and cautious ECB policy expectations, along with lingering trade frictions, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion. A June Iran-US ceasefire agreement has eased some downside risks by lowering near-term energy costs, yet forward-looking data releases through year-end remain key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$29,385Enddatum
31. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent energy price pressures stemming from the Iran conflict and associated supply disruptions have weighed heavily on euro area activity, driving the market-implied probability of 0-1.0% GDP growth for 2026 to 48.1% as the leading outcome. Official forecasts from the European Commission, OECD, and others cluster around 0.8-1.1% for the full year, following 1.4-1.5% expansion in 2025, amid modest Q2 2026 quarterly growth of 0.4% and year-over-year readings near 1.0%. Persistent inflation above target, reflected in rising Treasury yields and cautious ECB policy expectations, along with lingering trade frictions, have reinforced trader consensus around subdued expansion. A June Iran-US ceasefire agreement has eased some downside risks by lowering near-term energy costs, yet forward-looking data releases through year-end remain key swing factors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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