Short-term National Weather Service and model guidance point to a ridge of high pressure dominating central Texas through early September, favoring afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s for Austin on the 4th. Ensemble forecasts show limited moisture return and weak steering flow, keeping daily maxima clustered near 92–95 °F while capping the upside risk of stronger heating or downslope winds that could push readings into the upper 90s or low 100s. Historical early-September climatology for Austin places the median high near 93 °F, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal passage could nudge the outcome by a degree or two before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Austin am 4. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Austin am 4. September?
92-93°F 50%
94-95°F 38%
90-91°F 20%
96-97°F 18%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
87°F oder niedriger
1%
88-89°F
9%
90-91°F
20%
92-93°F
50%
94-95°F
38%
96-97°F
18%
98-99°F
16%
100-101°F
16%
102-103°F
15%
104-105°F
7%
106°F oder höher
8%
92-93°F 50%
94-95°F 38%
90-91°F 20%
96-97°F 18%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
87°F oder niedriger
$0 Vol.
1%
88-89°F
$20 Vol.
9%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
20%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
50%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
38%
96-97°F
$6 Vol.
18%
98-99°F
$13 Vol.
16%
100-101°F
$10 Vol.
16%
102-103°F
$0 Vol.
15%
104-105°F
$0 Vol.
7%
106°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term National Weather Service and model guidance point to a ridge of high pressure dominating central Texas through early September, favoring afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s for Austin on the 4th. Ensemble forecasts show limited moisture return and weak steering flow, keeping daily maxima clustered near 92–95 °F while capping the upside risk of stronger heating or downslope winds that could push readings into the upper 90s or low 100s. Historical early-September climatology for Austin places the median high near 93 °F, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal passage could nudge the outcome by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volumen
$48Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term National Weather Service and model guidance point to a ridge of high pressure dominating central Texas through early September, favoring afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s for Austin on the 4th. Ensemble forecasts show limited moisture return and weak steering flow, keeping daily maxima clustered near 92–95 °F while capping the upside risk of stronger heating or downslope winds that could push readings into the upper 90s or low 100s. Historical early-September climatology for Austin places the median high near 93 °F, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal passage could nudge the outcome by a degree or two before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$48Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 2:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Short-term National Weather Service and model guidance point to a ridge of high pressure dominating central Texas through early September, favoring afternoon highs in the low-to-mid 90s for Austin on the 4th. Ensemble forecasts show limited moisture return and weak steering flow, keeping daily maxima clustered near 92–95 °F while capping the upside risk of stronger heating or downslope winds that could push readings into the upper 90s or low 100s. Historical early-September climatology for Austin places the median high near 93 °F, aligning with the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those bins. Any late-model shift in boundary-layer moisture or cloud cover ahead of a weak frontal passage could nudge the outcome by a degree or two before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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