Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the primary driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 29–31°C for Manila’s September 4 high, with 30°C and 31°C each near 23–24% implied probability. Widespread cloud cover, scattered to frequent thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit daytime solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling, holding maxima near or slightly below the 30–31°C climatological average. PAGASA short-range guidance and ensemble runs show limited model spread on this pattern through the period, though small timing differences in heaviest rain could shift the peak by 1°C. El Niño background conditions add minor long-term warmth but exert little influence on this two-day horizon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Manila am 4. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Manila am 4. September?
31°C 26%
30°C 25%
29°C 15%
28°C 8%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
23°C oder weniger
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
6%
28°C
8%
29°C
15%
30°C
25%
31°C
24%
32°C
7%
33°C oder höher
7%
31°C 26%
30°C 25%
29°C 15%
28°C 8%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
23°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$120 Vol.
4%
27°C
$196 Vol.
6%
28°C
$5 Vol.
8%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$0 Vol.
25%
31°C
$37 Vol.
24%
32°C
$10 Vol.
7%
33°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the primary driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 29–31°C for Manila’s September 4 high, with 30°C and 31°C each near 23–24% implied probability. Widespread cloud cover, scattered to frequent thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit daytime solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling, holding maxima near or slightly below the 30–31°C climatological average. PAGASA short-range guidance and ensemble runs show limited model spread on this pattern through the period, though small timing differences in heaviest rain could shift the peak by 1°C. El Niño background conditions add minor long-term warmth but exert little influence on this two-day horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volumen
$174Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the primary driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 29–31°C for Manila’s September 4 high, with 30°C and 31°C each near 23–24% implied probability. Widespread cloud cover, scattered to frequent thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit daytime solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling, holding maxima near or slightly below the 30–31°C climatological average. PAGASA short-range guidance and ensemble runs show limited model spread on this pattern through the period, though small timing differences in heaviest rain could shift the peak by 1°C. El Niño background conditions add minor long-term warmth but exert little influence on this two-day horizon.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$174Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 12:58 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon activity across Luzon is the primary driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered around 29–31°C for Manila’s September 4 high, with 30°C and 31°C each near 23–24% implied probability. Widespread cloud cover, scattered to frequent thunderstorms, and moderate-to-strong southwesterly winds limit daytime solar heating while enhancing evaporative cooling, holding maxima near or slightly below the 30–31°C climatological average. PAGASA short-range guidance and ensemble runs show limited model spread on this pattern through the period, though small timing differences in heaviest rain could shift the peak by 1°C. El Niño background conditions add minor long-term warmth but exert little influence on this two-day horizon.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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