Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago indicates a persistent warm, humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the mid-70s on September 4, with forecasts centering on 72–77 °F amid 40–50 % storm chances and light easterly flow off Lake Michigan. This setup follows several days of well-above-normal heat, including a 95 °F high on September 2 and 89 °F on the 3rd, which has limited radiational cooling. Historical September 4 normals place the average low near 61–63 °F, underscoring how anomalous current conditions remain. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and any overnight thunderstorm timing creates the primary uncertainty between a 70–77 °F minimum versus a cooler 67 °F or lower outcome if stronger cooling or heavier rain occurs. Traders appear to weigh the risk of forecast shifts against the strong warm bias, producing closely matched probabilities across the middle and extreme ranges. Updated NWS briefings and evening model runs on September 3 will provide the next key data points ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Chicago am 4. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Chicago am 4. September?
67°F oder weniger 69%
86°F oder höher 59%
68-69°F 49%
70-71°F 49%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
67°F oder weniger
69%
68-69°F
49%
70-71°F
49%
72-73°F
49%
74-75 °F
27%
76-77°F
49%
78-79°F
49%
80-81°F
49%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
18%
86°F oder höher
59%
67°F oder weniger 69%
86°F oder höher 59%
68-69°F 49%
70-71°F 49%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
67°F oder weniger
$0 Vol.
69%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
49%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
49%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
49%
74-75 °F
$0 Vol.
27%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
49%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
49%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
49%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
20%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
18%
86°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago indicates a persistent warm, humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the mid-70s on September 4, with forecasts centering on 72–77 °F amid 40–50 % storm chances and light easterly flow off Lake Michigan. This setup follows several days of well-above-normal heat, including a 95 °F high on September 2 and 89 °F on the 3rd, which has limited radiational cooling. Historical September 4 normals place the average low near 61–63 °F, underscoring how anomalous current conditions remain. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and any overnight thunderstorm timing creates the primary uncertainty between a 70–77 °F minimum versus a cooler 67 °F or lower outcome if stronger cooling or heavier rain occurs. Traders appear to weigh the risk of forecast shifts against the strong warm bias, producing closely matched probabilities across the middle and extreme ranges. Updated NWS briefings and evening model runs on September 3 will provide the next key data points ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago indicates a persistent warm, humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the mid-70s on September 4, with forecasts centering on 72–77 °F amid 40–50 % storm chances and light easterly flow off Lake Michigan. This setup follows several days of well-above-normal heat, including a 95 °F high on September 2 and 89 °F on the 3rd, which has limited radiational cooling. Historical September 4 normals place the average low near 61–63 °F, underscoring how anomalous current conditions remain. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and any overnight thunderstorm timing creates the primary uncertainty between a 70–77 °F minimum versus a cooler 67 °F or lower outcome if stronger cooling or heavier rain occurs. Traders appear to weigh the risk of forecast shifts against the strong warm bias, producing closely matched probabilities across the middle and extreme ranges. Updated NWS briefings and evening model runs on September 3 will provide the next key data points ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model guidance for Chicago indicates a persistent warm, humid air mass will keep overnight lows in the mid-70s on September 4, with forecasts centering on 72–77 °F amid 40–50 % storm chances and light easterly flow off Lake Michigan. This setup follows several days of well-above-normal heat, including a 95 °F high on September 2 and 89 °F on the 3rd, which has limited radiational cooling. Historical September 4 normals place the average low near 61–63 °F, underscoring how anomalous current conditions remain. Model spread in boundary-layer moisture and any overnight thunderstorm timing creates the primary uncertainty between a 70–77 °F minimum versus a cooler 67 °F or lower outcome if stronger cooling or heavier rain occurs. Traders appear to weigh the risk of forecast shifts against the strong warm bias, producing closely matched probabilities across the middle and extreme ranges. Updated NWS briefings and evening model runs on September 3 will provide the next key data points ahead of market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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