Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 4. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 4. September?
82-83°F 25%
88-89°F 19%
86-87 °F 19%
84-85°F 15%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
79°F oder niedriger
1%
80–81°F
7%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
15%
86-87 °F
19%
88-89°F
19%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
7%
94-95°F
6%
96-97°F
6%
98°F oder höher
2%
82-83°F 25%
88-89°F 19%
86-87 °F 19%
84-85°F 15%
NEU
NEU
4. Sep. 2026
79°F oder niedriger
$0 Vol.
1%
80–81°F
$0 Vol.
7%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
25%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
15%
86-87 °F
$0 Vol.
19%
88-89°F
$133 Vol.
19%
90-91°F
$111 Vol.
10%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
7%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
6%
96-97°F
$0 Vol.
6%
98°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volumen
$244Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$244Enddatum
4. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 2, 2026, 3:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 4 points to a high in the mid-to-upper 80s amid increasing cloud cover, a 40-50% chance of showers and thunderstorms, and an easterly wind shift that favors Lake Michigan moderation. This setup explains the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 86–89°F, as lake-breeze effects and convective cooling can shave several degrees from inland maxima while limiting full solar heating. A lingering warm, humid airmass from earlier in the week supports the upper end of that range, yet model consensus on storm timing and lake influence keeps lower-80s outcomes viable. Updated forecast discussions and morning model runs will likely refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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