Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front as the main driver lifting Chicago’s September 15 high into the upper 70s to low 80s, with 80–83 °F bins holding the strongest market-implied odds. Warm, humid air advection from the south raises surface temperatures, yet widespread cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms—forecast probabilities near 60–70 %—limit afternoon heating and create the narrow spread among leading outcomes. Key variables include the precise timing of the frontal passage, dew-point depression, and any westward extension of the warm sector; drier or earlier clearing scenarios could push readings toward 84–85 °F, while persistent rain would cap them near 78 °F. Updated NWS Chicago forecast discussions and 12z model runs expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Chicago am 15. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Chicago am 15. September?
80-81°F 28%
82-83°F 27%
78-79°F 21%
88-89°F 10%
NEU
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
71°F oder niedriger
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
8%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
27%
84-85°F
8%
86-87 °F
8%
88-89°F
10%
90°F oder höher
9%
80-81°F 28%
82-83°F 27%
78-79°F 21%
88-89°F 10%
NEU
NEU
15. Sep. 2026
71°F oder niedriger
$10 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$10 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
3%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
8%
78-79°F
$2 Vol.
21%
80-81°F
$57 Vol.
28%
82-83°F
$24 Vol.
27%
84-85°F
$98 Vol.
8%
86-87 °F
$20 Vol.
8%
88-89°F
$34 Vol.
10%
90°F oder höher
$10 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front as the main driver lifting Chicago’s September 15 high into the upper 70s to low 80s, with 80–83 °F bins holding the strongest market-implied odds. Warm, humid air advection from the south raises surface temperatures, yet widespread cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms—forecast probabilities near 60–70 %—limit afternoon heating and create the narrow spread among leading outcomes. Key variables include the precise timing of the frontal passage, dew-point depression, and any westward extension of the warm sector; drier or earlier clearing scenarios could push readings toward 84–85 °F, while persistent rain would cap them near 78 °F. Updated NWS Chicago forecast discussions and 12z model runs expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ET
Volumen
$265Enddatum
15. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front as the main driver lifting Chicago’s September 15 high into the upper 70s to low 80s, with 80–83 °F bins holding the strongest market-implied odds. Warm, humid air advection from the south raises surface temperatures, yet widespread cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms—forecast probabilities near 60–70 %—limit afternoon heating and create the narrow spread among leading outcomes. Key variables include the precise timing of the frontal passage, dew-point depression, and any westward extension of the warm sector; drier or earlier clearing scenarios could push readings toward 84–85 °F, while persistent rain would cap them near 78 °F. Updated NWS Chicago forecast discussions and 12z model runs expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$265Enddatum
15. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 13, 2026, 12:56 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front as the main driver lifting Chicago’s September 15 high into the upper 70s to low 80s, with 80–83 °F bins holding the strongest market-implied odds. Warm, humid air advection from the south raises surface temperatures, yet widespread cloud cover and scattered showers or thunderstorms—forecast probabilities near 60–70 %—limit afternoon heating and create the narrow spread among leading outcomes. Key variables include the precise timing of the frontal passage, dew-point depression, and any westward extension of the warm sector; drier or earlier clearing scenarios could push readings toward 84–85 °F, while persistent rain would cap them near 78 °F. Updated NWS Chicago forecast discussions and 12z model runs expected later today will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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