Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum of 22°C on May 17, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22°C derived from long-term Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Stable southeasterly flow and limited moisture have kept model consensus tightly clustered around this value, with minimal spread from cloud cover or localized sea-breeze effects. This scientific backing underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for 22°C, reflecting traders’ assessment of current observational trends and historical analogs. A modest shift in afternoon insolation or unexpected onshore winds could still produce a 21°C or 23°C reading before final NOAA airport data resolve the outcome later today.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 17. Mai?
Höchste Temperatur in Istanbul am 17. Mai?
22°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
$60,598 Vol.
$60,598 Vol.
17. Mai 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
100%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
22°C 99.8%
21°C <1%
14°C or below <1%
15°C <1%
$60,598 Vol.
$60,598 Vol.
17. Mai 2026
14°C or below
$552 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$13,506 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$2,184 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$5,050 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$4,817 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,690 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,519 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$8,073 Vol.
100%
23°C
$6,609 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$11,327 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum of 22°C on May 17, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22°C derived from long-term Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Stable southeasterly flow and limited moisture have kept model consensus tightly clustered around this value, with minimal spread from cloud cover or localized sea-breeze effects. This scientific backing underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for 22°C, reflecting traders’ assessment of current observational trends and historical analogs. A modest shift in afternoon insolation or unexpected onshore winds could still produce a 21°C or 23°C reading before final NOAA airport data resolve the outcome later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$60,598Enddatum
17. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum of 22°C on May 17, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22°C derived from long-term Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Stable southeasterly flow and limited moisture have kept model consensus tightly clustered around this value, with minimal spread from cloud cover or localized sea-breeze effects. This scientific backing underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for 22°C, reflecting traders’ assessment of current observational trends and historical analogs. A modest shift in afternoon insolation or unexpected onshore winds could still produce a 21°C or 23°C reading before final NOAA airport data resolve the outcome later today.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$60,598Enddatum
17. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System indicate Istanbul will reach a daily maximum of 22°C on May 17, aligning with the mid-May climatological average of 20–22°C derived from long-term Turkish State Meteorological Service records. Stable southeasterly flow and limited moisture have kept model consensus tightly clustered around this value, with minimal spread from cloud cover or localized sea-breeze effects. This scientific backing underpins the overwhelming market-implied probability for 22°C, reflecting traders’ assessment of current observational trends and historical analogs. A modest shift in afternoon insolation or unexpected onshore winds could still produce a 21°C or 23°C reading before final NOAA airport data resolve the outcome later today.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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