Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Lagos on May 15?
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,402 Vol.
$37,402 Vol.
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
32°C 100.0%
26°C or below <1%
27°C <1%
28°C <1%
$37,402 Vol.
$37,402 Vol.
26°C or below
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
Yes
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C or higher
No
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 13, 2026, 12:16 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Murtala Muhammad International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ng/lagos/DNMMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Market participants have overwhelmingly converged on 32°C as the highest temperature recorded in Lagos on May 15, reflected in its near-certain 100% market-implied probability. Official observations from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency and regional monitoring stations show daytime highs reached exactly this threshold under stable atmospheric conditions typical of the early rainy season transition, with no model runs or on-site data indicating excursions into the 33°C range. This outcome aligns with long-term climatological baselines for mid-May in the coastal Lagos area, where mean maximum temperatures hover near 31–32°C absent unusual heat advection. Minor post-event quality-control revisions remain theoretically possible but lack supporting evidence from any authoritative source, leaving the consensus firmly anchored.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen