Active monsoon conditions across Uttar Pradesh, including widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and expected spells of rain or thundershowers, are moderating daytime heating in Lucknow and positioning 31–32°C as the leading outcomes for the September 5 maximum. Official IMD forecasts and multiple meteorological models project a high near 31–32°C with minimums around 26°C, consistent with recent observations of 32.3°C on September 4 under similar patterns. These values align with historical September baselines tempered by ongoing monsoon moisture, which reduces solar insolation and promotes evaporative cooling. Traders’ heavy weighting toward 31°C (46.5%) and 32°C (33%) reflects this consensus, while lower probabilities for 30°C or 33°C+ account for forecast uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of any showers. Real-time station data from the India Meteorological Department will resolve the market as observations finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Lucknow am 5. September?
31°C 46%
32°C 36%
30°C 11%
33°C 6%
24°C oder niedriger
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
11%
31°C
46%
32°C
36%
33°C
6%
34°C oder höher
<1%
31°C 46%
32°C 36%
30°C 11%
33°C 6%
24°C oder niedriger
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
1%
29°C
2%
30°C
11%
31°C
46%
32°C
36%
33°C
6%
34°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Active monsoon conditions across Uttar Pradesh, including widespread cloud cover, high humidity, and expected spells of rain or thundershowers, are moderating daytime heating in Lucknow and positioning 31–32°C as the leading outcomes for the September 5 maximum. Official IMD forecasts and multiple meteorological models project a high near 31–32°C with minimums around 26°C, consistent with recent observations of 32.3°C on September 4 under similar patterns. These values align with historical September baselines tempered by ongoing monsoon moisture, which reduces solar insolation and promotes evaporative cooling. Traders’ heavy weighting toward 31°C (46.5%) and 32°C (33%) reflects this consensus, while lower probabilities for 30°C or 33°C+ account for forecast uncertainty in exact timing and intensity of any showers. Real-time station data from the India Meteorological Department will resolve the market as observations finalize.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen