National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a mild spring setup with southerly flow and mostly clear skies delivering New York City highs in the low 80s tomorrow, which explains the tight clustering of trader-implied odds between the 80–81°F and 82–83°F ranges. Minor differences among models arise from small variations in afternoon mixing depth, boundary-layer humidity, and exact timing of peak insolation, creating the observed split in probabilities while ruling out cooler or much warmer extremes. Historical May averages near 72°F provide context for this above-normal but not record warmth, with final resolution depending on the official LaGuardia Airport observation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in NYC am 18. Mai?
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 13%
$13,925 Vol.
$13,925 Vol.
69°F oder niedriger
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
7%
88°F oder höher
4%
82-83°F 31%
80-81°F 28%
84-85°F 16%
78-79°F 13%
$13,925 Vol.
$13,925 Vol.
69°F oder niedriger
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
28%
82-83°F
31%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
7%
88°F oder höher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance point to a mild spring setup with southerly flow and mostly clear skies delivering New York City highs in the low 80s tomorrow, which explains the tight clustering of trader-implied odds between the 80–81°F and 82–83°F ranges. Minor differences among models arise from small variations in afternoon mixing depth, boundary-layer humidity, and exact timing of peak insolation, creating the observed split in probabilities while ruling out cooler or much warmer extremes. Historical May averages near 72°F provide context for this above-normal but not record warmth, with final resolution depending on the official LaGuardia Airport observation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen