Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS-derived forecasts points to a high of 22–24°C in Warsaw on September 3 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly flow and minimal precipitation. This setup, driven by a broad high-pressure influence and limited advection of warmer air, produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those three outcomes. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C, while historical early-September averages near 20–22°C provide context for why traders view substantial deviations as low-probability. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 3. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 3. September?
23°C 39%
22°C 30%
24°C 24%
21°C 10%
NEU
NEU
3. Sep. 2026
18°C or below
4%
19°C
3%
20°C
7%
21°C
10%
22°C
30%
23°C
39%
24°C
24%
25°C
3%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
23°C 39%
22°C 30%
24°C 24%
21°C 10%
NEU
NEU
3. Sep. 2026
18°C or below
$5 Vol.
4%
19°C
$5 Vol.
3%
20°C
$20 Vol.
7%
21°C
$0 Vol.
10%
22°C
$0 Vol.
30%
23°C
$5 Vol.
39%
24°C
$5 Vol.
24%
25°C
$0 Vol.
3%
26°C
$5 Vol.
2%
27°C
$111 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$225 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS-derived forecasts points to a high of 22–24°C in Warsaw on September 3 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly flow and minimal precipitation. This setup, driven by a broad high-pressure influence and limited advection of warmer air, produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those three outcomes. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C, while historical early-September averages near 20–22°C provide context for why traders view substantial deviations as low-probability. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$382Enddatum
3. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS-derived forecasts points to a high of 22–24°C in Warsaw on September 3 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly flow and minimal precipitation. This setup, driven by a broad high-pressure influence and limited advection of warmer air, produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those three outcomes. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C, while historical early-September averages near 20–22°C provide context for why traders view substantial deviations as low-probability. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$382Enddatum
3. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 1, 2026, 12:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent weather model consensus from sources including GFS-derived forecasts points to a high of 22–24°C in Warsaw on September 3 under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly flow and minimal precipitation. This setup, driven by a broad high-pressure influence and limited advection of warmer air, produces the tight clustering of market-implied odds around those three outcomes. Ensemble spreads and slight differences in cloud timing or boundary-layer mixing explain the modest probabilities assigned to 21°C or 25°C, while historical early-September averages near 20–22°C provide context for why traders view substantial deviations as low-probability. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine the exact peak.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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