Traders see roughly equal implied probabilities for extremes around the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 13 because numerical weather prediction models diverge on overnight radiative cooling amid widespread thunderstorms and thick cloud cover. Persistent rain and high humidity from the East Asian monsoon suppress temperature drops, favoring minima near 25–27 °C according to consensus guidance, yet any breaks in cloudiness could allow greater cooling toward the lower end of historical September ranges. Recent model runs highlight sensitivity to steering flow and precipitation timing, with official updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration expected to refine the forecast before market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Guangzhou am 13. September?
20°C oder weniger 100%
25°C 45%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
20°C oder weniger
100%
21°C
16%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
22%
25°C
27%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C
40%
29°C
<1%
30°C oder höher
<1%
20°C oder weniger 100%
25°C 45%
22°C 40%
23°C 40%
20°C oder weniger
100%
21°C
16%
22°C
40%
23°C
40%
24°C
22%
25°C
27%
26°C
22%
27°C
22%
28°C
40%
29°C
<1%
30°C oder höher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Traders see roughly equal implied probabilities for extremes around the lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 13 because numerical weather prediction models diverge on overnight radiative cooling amid widespread thunderstorms and thick cloud cover. Persistent rain and high humidity from the East Asian monsoon suppress temperature drops, favoring minima near 25–27 °C according to consensus guidance, yet any breaks in cloudiness could allow greater cooling toward the lower end of historical September ranges. Recent model runs highlight sensitivity to steering flow and precipitation timing, with official updates from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration expected to refine the forecast before market resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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