Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Warschau am 12. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Warschau am 12. September?
19°C 40%
20°C 34%
18°C 22%
17°C 8%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
15°C oder darunter
4%
16°C
4%
17°C
8%
18°C
22%
19°C
40%
20°C
34%
21°C
7%
22°C
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C oder höher
<1%
19°C 40%
20°C 34%
18°C 22%
17°C 8%
NEU
NEU
12. Sep. 2026
15°C oder darunter
$40 Vol.
4%
16°C
$31 Vol.
4%
17°C
$9 Vol.
8%
18°C
$382 Vol.
22%
19°C
$15 Vol.
40%
20°C
$692 Vol.
34%
21°C
$0 Vol.
7%
22°C
$0 Vol.
3%
23°C
$0 Vol.
3%
24°C
$0 Vol.
2%
25°C oder höher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volumen
$1,285Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,285Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent high-pressure building over central Europe, with surface readings near 1022 hPa and clearing skies, drives the market’s tight clustering around 19–20 °C for Warsaw’s September 12 maximum. Light westerly flow and modest insolation at 52 °N latitude under partly cloudy conditions limit both strong daytime heating and significant cooling, keeping forecast highs centered near 18–19 °C across GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing explain the slim edge for 19 °C (39 %) over 20 °C (35 %). Updated model runs and any shift in the ridge axis remain the key near-term catalysts that could nudge probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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