Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds favoring moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Forecast minimum temperatures for September 1 cluster tightly between 19–21°C, consistent with the near-even market-implied probabilities for 19–22°C outcomes. This reflects typical early-September climatology under a warm, dry air mass, where the daily minimum depends on precise timing of the pre-dawn low, local urban heat-island effects, and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture. No significant synoptic changes or frontal passages are expected before resolution, limiting downside risk to sub-18°C readings while capping upside potential from persistent daytime heating. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely narrow trader consensus around these thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Istanbul am 1. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Istanbul am 1. September?
18°C 49%
17°C 40%
26°C or higher 36%
20°C 27%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
16°C or below
11%
17°C
40%
18°C
49%
19°C
26%
20°C
27%
21°C
27%
22°C
27%
23°C
2%
24°C
26%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
36%
18°C 49%
17°C 40%
26°C or higher 36%
20°C 27%
NEU
NEU
1. Sep. 2026
16°C or below
$135 Vol.
11%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
49%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
27%
21°C
$0 Vol.
27%
22°C
$0 Vol.
27%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C
$0 Vol.
26%
25°C
$10 Vol.
8%
26°C or higher
$10 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds favoring moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Forecast minimum temperatures for September 1 cluster tightly between 19–21°C, consistent with the near-even market-implied probabilities for 19–22°C outcomes. This reflects typical early-September climatology under a warm, dry air mass, where the daily minimum depends on precise timing of the pre-dawn low, local urban heat-island effects, and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture. No significant synoptic changes or frontal passages are expected before resolution, limiting downside risk to sub-18°C readings while capping upside potential from persistent daytime heating. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely narrow trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$155Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds favoring moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Forecast minimum temperatures for September 1 cluster tightly between 19–21°C, consistent with the near-even market-implied probabilities for 19–22°C outcomes. This reflects typical early-September climatology under a warm, dry air mass, where the daily minimum depends on precise timing of the pre-dawn low, local urban heat-island effects, and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture. No significant synoptic changes or frontal passages are expected before resolution, limiting downside risk to sub-18°C readings while capping upside potential from persistent daytime heating. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely narrow trader consensus around these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$155Enddatum
1. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 30, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction runs from models like GFS and ECMWF indicate a stable high-pressure regime over Istanbul, with clear skies and light northeasterly winds favoring moderate nocturnal radiative cooling. Forecast minimum temperatures for September 1 cluster tightly between 19–21°C, consistent with the near-even market-implied probabilities for 19–22°C outcomes. This reflects typical early-September climatology under a warm, dry air mass, where the daily minimum depends on precise timing of the pre-dawn low, local urban heat-island effects, and minor variations in boundary-layer moisture. No significant synoptic changes or frontal passages are expected before resolution, limiting downside risk to sub-18°C readings while capping upside potential from persistent daytime heating. Updated model guidance ahead of the event will likely narrow trader consensus around these thresholds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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