Recent forecasts from sources including the National Meteorological Service of Mexico and international models point to typical rainy-season conditions for Mexico City on August 22, with overnight lows expected near 12–15 °C amid cloud cover, scattered showers, and light northerly winds that limit radiative cooling at the city’s 2,240 m elevation. This aligns closely with the August climatological average low of roughly 11–12 °C, where afternoon convection and high humidity usually prevent extreme drops. Trader positioning, however, shows the strongest implied probability (47.5 %) on 6 °C or below, suggesting the market is pricing in tail-risk scenarios such as clearer skies or stronger cold-air advection that could enhance nocturnal cooling beyond current model consensus. Near-term model updates and official minimum readings from the Mexico City station will be the key near-term catalysts likely to shift these probabilities.