Current model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the overnight minimum in Paris near 12°C on September 17, supported by a west-southwest flow advecting milder maritime air under increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Light winds and possible light showers further moderate temperature drops, keeping values close to seasonal norms of 11–13°C rather than allowing stronger nocturnal cooling. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 11°C absent an unexpected clear slot, while upside above 14°C appears unlikely given the pressure gradient and moisture. Traders have aligned implied probabilities accordingly, with fresh model updates tomorrow morning likely serving as the final catalyst before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Paris am 17. September?
12°C 49%
13°C 26%
11°C 24%
14°C 10%
8°C oder niedriger
6%
9°C
6%
10°C
6%
11°C
24%
12°C
45%
13°C
26%
14°C
10%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C oder höher
2%
12°C 49%
13°C 26%
11°C 24%
14°C 10%
8°C oder niedriger
6%
9°C
6%
10°C
6%
11°C
24%
12°C
45%
13°C
26%
14°C
10%
15°C
2%
16°C
2%
17°C
2%
18°C oder höher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 15, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Current model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the overnight minimum in Paris near 12°C on September 17, supported by a west-southwest flow advecting milder maritime air under increasing cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. Light winds and possible light showers further moderate temperature drops, keeping values close to seasonal norms of 11–13°C rather than allowing stronger nocturnal cooling. Ensemble spreads show limited downside risk below 11°C absent an unexpected clear slot, while upside above 14°C appears unlikely given the pressure gradient and moisture. Traders have aligned implied probabilities accordingly, with fresh model updates tomorrow morning likely serving as the final catalyst before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen