**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13. Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Qingdao am 13. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Qingdao am 13. September?
16°C oder weniger 100%
26°C oder höher 93%
17°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEU
NEU
13. Sep. 2026
16°C oder weniger
100%
17°C
40%
18°C
28%
19°C
26%
20°C
22%
21°C
39%
22°C
6%
23°C
39%
24°C
39%
25°C
39%
26°C oder höher
93%
16°C oder weniger 100%
26°C oder höher 93%
17°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEU
NEU
13. Sep. 2026
16°C oder weniger
$0 Vol.
100%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
28%
19°C
$0 Vol.
26%
20°C
$0 Vol.
22%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$20 Vol.
6%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$0 Vol.
39%
25°C
$0 Vol.
39%
26°C oder höher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13.
Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volumen
$20Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13.
Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$20Enddatum
13. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 11, 2026, 12:31 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Market-implied odds show near parity between a cool outcome (16°C or below at 50.0%) and a warm one (26°C or higher at 47.5%), with mid-range values like 18–20°C each around 20–23%.** This balance reflects substantial uncertainty in the 48-hour forecast window for Qingdao’s daily minimum on September 13. Primary drivers include a wind shift from southerly to northerly flow, which can enhance radiational cooling under clearing skies or advect cooler continental air, versus persistent onshore flow or cloud cover that moderates overnight lows. Coastal location adds sea-breeze and marine-layer effects that often keep minima near or above 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing 20–23°C lows and 25–27°C highs. Historical September baselines (average low ~18°C) provide context, but short-term model spread—particularly in boundary-layer processes and frontal timing—explains the split sentiment. New GFS and ECMWF runs plus local observations will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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