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Politik·Wahlen In Frankreich

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

icon for Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?
Politik·Wahlen In Frankreich

Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

NEU
30. Apr. 2027
Polymarket

$2,952 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen

$209 Vol.

12%

icon for Jordan Bardella

Jordan Bardella

$226 Vol.

80%

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Éric Zemmour

$60 Vol.

5%

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Édouard Philippe

$1 Vol.

45%

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David Lisnard

$9 Vol.

5%

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Xavier Bertrand

$164 Vol.

4%

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Laurent Wauquiez

$50 Vol.

4%

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François Ruffin

$126 Vol.

4%

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Gabriel Attal

$0 Vol.

22%

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Bruno Retailleau

$200 Vol.

8%

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François Hollande

$21 Vol.

6%

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Raphaël Glucksmann

$25 Vol.

21%

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Jean-Luc Mélenchon

$314 Vol.

43%

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Marine Tondelier

$10 Vol.

6%

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Fabien Roussel

$50 Vol.

6%

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Olivier Faure

$50 Vol.

6%

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Dominique de Villepin

$54 Vol.

7%

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Ségolène Royal

$74 Vol.

4%

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François Asselineau

$208 Vol.

4%

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Clémentine Autain

$73 Vol.

4%

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Nicolas Dupont-Aignan

$0 Vol.

3%

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Michel Barnier

$57 Vol.

3%

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Valérie Pécresse

$57 Vol.

3%

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François Bayrou

$12 Vol.

3%

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Élisabeth Borne

$50 Vol.

4%

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Yaël Braun-Pivet

$85 Vol.

3%

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Jean Castex

$152 Vol.

26%

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Gérald Darmanin

$50 Vol.

7%

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Carole Delga

$71 Vol.

4%

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Bernard Cazeneuve

$56 Vol.

6%

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Manuel Bompard

$50 Vol.

5%

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Mathilde Panot

$50 Vol.

3%

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Other

$92 Vol.

34%

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Sarah Knafo

$38 Vol.

5%

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Juan Branco

$121 Vol.

3%

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Clémence Guetté

$81 Vol.

4%

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Sébastien Lecornu

$6 Vol.

4%

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leads first-round polling for France’s April 2027 presidential election, positioning the far-right party to advance to the runoff regardless of the opponent. Recent surveys show him well ahead, with far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon gaining ground and frequently placing second amid left fragmentation and center-right splits involving figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Marine Le Pen’s eligibility hinges on her July 2026 appeal of the embezzlement conviction and five-year office ban that has already shifted momentum to Bardella as the likely National Rally nominee. The two-round system and potential for anti-RN coordination in a runoff remain key variables for traders assessing advancement probabilities.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$2,952
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leads first-round polling for France’s April 2027 presidential election, positioning the far-right party to advance to the runoff regardless of the opponent. Recent surveys show him well ahead, with far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon gaining ground and frequently placing second amid left fragmentation and center-right splits involving figures such as Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Marine Le Pen’s eligibility hinges on her July 2026 appeal of the embezzlement conviction and five-year office ban that has already shifted momentum to Bardella as the likely National Rally nominee. The two-round system and potential for anti-RN coordination in a runoff remain key variables for traders assessing advancement probabilities.

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier.

The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
Volumen
$2,952
Enddatum
30. Apr. 2027
Markt eröffnet
Jun 1, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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„Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 37 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Jordan Bardella" mit 80%, gefolgt von „Édouard Philippe" mit 46%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 80¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 80% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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