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Wahlen·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

icon for NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory
Wahlen·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Mejia 20-25% 100.0%

Mejia 40%+ <1%

Mejia 35-40% <1%

Mejia 30-35% <1%

Polymarket

$26,179 Vol.

Mejia 20-25% 100.0%

Mejia 40%+ <1%

Mejia 35-40% <1%

Mejia 30-35% <1%

Polymarket

$26,179 Vol.

Mejia 40%+

$980 Vol.

No

Mejia 35-40%

$5,582 Vol.

No

Mejia 30-35%

$2,480 Vol.

No

Mejia 25-30%

$2,658 Vol.

No

Mejia 20-25%

$6,742 Vol.

Yes

Mejia <20%

$6,872 Vol.

No

Other

$865 Vol.

No

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Certified county canvasses from New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16 confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 60% to Republican Joe Hathaway's 39% victory, a 21-percentage-point margin that outperforms Kamala Harris's narrow district win by 12 points and sustains the seat's safely Democratic status vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. High turnout of 136,000 voters in a Thursday contest fueled Mejia's dominance in diverse towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Trump-won municipalities despite softer support in Jewish-heavy suburbs such as Livingston and Millburn. Traders price a 20-25% Mejia margin at 99.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent tallies across sources and no reported irregularities ahead of state certification via nj.gov. Only substantiated discrepancies in the final canvass could shift resolution, though the wide gap makes this improbable.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$26,179
Enddatum
16. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Certified county canvasses from New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election on April 16 confirm Democrat Analilia Mejia's 60% to Republican Joe Hathaway's 39% victory, a 21-percentage-point margin that outperforms Kamala Harris's narrow district win by 12 points and sustains the seat's safely Democratic status vacated by Gov. Mikie Sherrill. High turnout of 136,000 voters in a Thursday contest fueled Mejia's dominance in diverse towns like Dover and Bloomfield, flipping 13 Trump-won municipalities despite softer support in Jewish-heavy suburbs such as Livingston and Millburn. Traders price a 20-25% Mejia margin at 99.5% implied probability, reflecting consistent tallies across sources and no reported irregularities ahead of state certification via nj.gov. Only substantiated discrepancies in the final canvass could shift resolution, though the wide gap makes this improbable.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$26,179
Enddatum
16. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mejia 20-25%" mit 100%, gefolgt von „Mejia 40%+" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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