The by-election for Lithuania’s Northern Nalšia single-member constituency, set for 8 November 2026 after the death of incumbent Liberal Jevgenij Šuklin, features a crowded field that keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered. Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union holds the highest listed price amid local name recognition from prior terms, yet Vladislav Kondratovič of the Social Democrats and several other party-nominated contenders remain within striking distance. Fragmented support across liberal, social-democratic, conservative, and regional lists, combined with the short campaign window and absence of decisive recent polling or endorsements, sustains the competitive balance. A late consolidation behind one candidate or a strong turnout surge in key rural or municipal precincts could shift the market before election day.