The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles form the primary driver behind the 79.5% Republican consensus in this open-seat contest. Elise Stefanik's departure to pursue the governorship created the vacancy, yet the area's rural and suburban voter base has delivered double-digit Republican margins in prior House races. Anthony Constantino's June primary victory solidified the GOP nominee ahead of the November general election, while Democratic contenders such as Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds with limited recent polling shifts. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that reflects both historical turnout patterns and the absence of major late-cycle developments capable of narrowing the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNY-21 Wahlsieger
NY-21 Wahlsieger
$52,748 Vol.
$52,748 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
80%
Demokratische Partei
18%
$52,748 Vol.
$52,748 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$24,496 Vol.
80%
Demokratische Partei
$28,252 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles form the primary driver behind the 79.5% Republican consensus in this open-seat contest. Elise Stefanik's departure to pursue the governorship created the vacancy, yet the area's rural and suburban voter base has delivered double-digit Republican margins in prior House races. Anthony Constantino's June primary victory solidified the GOP nominee ahead of the November general election, while Democratic contenders such as Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds with limited recent polling shifts. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that reflects both historical turnout patterns and the absence of major late-cycle developments capable of narrowing the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$52,748Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles form the primary driver behind the 79.5% Republican consensus in this open-seat contest. Elise Stefanik's departure to pursue the governorship created the vacancy, yet the area's rural and suburban voter base has delivered double-digit Republican margins in prior House races. Anthony Constantino's June primary victory solidified the GOP nominee ahead of the November general election, while Democratic contenders such as Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds with limited recent polling shifts. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that reflects both historical turnout patterns and the absence of major late-cycle developments capable of narrowing the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$52,748Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's R+10 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles form the primary driver behind the 79.5% Republican consensus in this open-seat contest. Elise Stefanik's departure to pursue the governorship created the vacancy, yet the area's rural and suburban voter base has delivered double-digit Republican margins in prior House races. Anthony Constantino's June primary victory solidified the GOP nominee ahead of the November general election, while Democratic contenders such as Blake Gendebien face structural headwinds with limited recent polling shifts. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Likely Republican, aligning with trader pricing that reflects both historical turnout patterns and the absence of major late-cycle developments capable of narrowing the gap.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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