Current rainfall accumulation through mid-May stands at roughly 88 mm according to Hong Kong Observatory measurements, well below the 212–369 mm normal range. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the 200–220 mm bins because seasonal outlooks favor normal to above-normal totals through July, while short-term models show scattered thunderstorms and monsoon trough activity that could add 120–150 mm over the remaining 18 days. Forecast uncertainty remains high, however, as model consensus on rainfall intensity and duration varies, with any prolonged dry spells or stronger convective systems shifting totals toward the lower or higher brackets. Historical May variability, driven by the timing of the southwest monsoon onset, further supports the tight clustering around these central outcomes.