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icon for Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?

Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?

icon for Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?

Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?

NEU
26. Aug. 2026
Polymarket

$3,210 Vol.

Polymarket

5 %+

$25 Vol.

91%

6 %+

$6 Vol.

87%

7%+

$1,294 Vol.

53%

8 %+

$612 Vol.

35%

9 %+

$555 Vol.

25%

10 %+

$717 Vol.

18%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. **The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%. Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate. As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.

In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).

The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Volumen
$3,210
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. **The US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026 (April–June) was shaped primarily by the 10% Section 122 global surcharge imposed after the Supreme Court invalidated broader IEEPA tariffs in February 2026, layered on top of existing Section 232 duties on steel, aluminum, copper, and derivatives.** This temporary measure, effective from late February through its scheduled July 24 expiration, produced reported quarterly averages around 7–7.5% in available estimates, down from higher 2025 peaks but well above the pre-2025 baseline near 2%. Section 232 expansions, including 50% rates on many metal products and adjustments to derivative coverage, remained key contributors alongside any lingering or modified Section 301 actions. Import shifts, exemptions, and collection timing influenced the customs-duties-to-import-value ratio used for the effective rate. As Q2 data finalizes, attention centers on official releases from customs and trade statistics, with the immediate post-quarter transition to new 10–12.5% Section 301 duties on dozens of partners (effective July 24) and additional targeted measures, such as 50% tariffs on select Canadian goods, setting the stage for later quarters. These policy mechanics and legal timelines define the range of outcomes traders assess for the Q2 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e.

In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error).

The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Volumen
$3,210
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jul 23, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total US effective tariff rate for Q2 of 2026 is at least equal to or higher than the listed figure. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The total effective tariff rate will be the number reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in the chart titled: "Federal government current tax receipts: Taxes on production and imports: Customs duties/Current payments to the rest of the world: Imports of goods*100" for Q2 of 2026. This data can be found here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e. In the event that this data is not published by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". Revisions to the published tariff rate after initial publication will not be considered unless the initial data is clearly erroneous (such as due to a technical error or typographical error). The resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „5 %+" mit 91%, gefolgt von „6 %+ " mit 87%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 91¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 91% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Jul 23, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

Um auf „Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 6 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?" ist „5 %+" mit 91%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 91% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „6 %+ " mit 87%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Effektiver US-Zollsatz für Q2 2026?" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.