**No major (7.0+) earthquake has struck California in 2026 through mid-August**, with USGS records showing only moderate events such as the M5.6 near Redwood Valley in June and scattered smaller quakes or swarms (M4.2 and below). This absence, after roughly 7.5 months, strongly supports the 89.5% market-implied probability for “No,” as the annual baseline rate for a 7.0+ event statewide remains low (typically well under 20% in any given year based on long-term USGS catalogs and fault models). Ongoing monitoring reveals only routine background seismicity without foreshock sequences, elevated strain indicators, or model consensus pointing to imminent rupture on major faults like the San Andreas. With less than five months remaining, the window for a qualifying event has narrowed sharply, reinforcing trader consensus around the current odds while acknowledging that sudden model updates or rare late-year activity could still alter the outcome.