The near-certain trader consensus on the regime surviving through September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and Iran's demonstrated institutional resilience. Leadership succession after the February 2026 killing of Ali Khamenei occurred rapidly without major military defections or state breakdown, while subsequent U.S. and Israeli strikes, economic sanctions, and January protests triggered nationalist consolidation rather than collapse. Recent government-organized rallies in mid-September further signal maintained control amid ongoing pressures. Although structural challenges such as economic strain and internal dissent persist, no verified developments in the past month point to an imminent regime-ending event before month-end. Late-breaking escalations or unforeseen internal fractures remain the only plausible, albeit remote, paths to altering the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
<1% Chance
$2,419,920 Vol.
$2,419,920 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
Ja
<1% Chance
$2,419,920 Vol.
$2,419,920 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus on the regime surviving through September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and Iran's demonstrated institutional resilience. Leadership succession after the February 2026 killing of Ali Khamenei occurred rapidly without major military defections or state breakdown, while subsequent U.S. and Israeli strikes, economic sanctions, and January protests triggered nationalist consolidation rather than collapse. Recent government-organized rallies in mid-September further signal maintained control amid ongoing pressures. Although structural challenges such as economic strain and internal dissent persist, no verified developments in the past month point to an imminent regime-ending event before month-end. Late-breaking escalations or unforeseen internal fractures remain the only plausible, albeit remote, paths to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Volumen
$2,419,920Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The near-certain trader consensus on the regime surviving through September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and Iran's demonstrated institutional resilience. Leadership succession after the February 2026 killing of Ali Khamenei occurred rapidly without major military defections or state breakdown, while subsequent U.S. and Israeli strikes, economic sanctions, and January protests triggered nationalist consolidation rather than collapse. Recent government-organized rallies in mid-September further signal maintained control amid ongoing pressures. Although structural challenges such as economic strain and internal dissent persist, no verified developments in the past month point to an imminent regime-ending event before month-end. Late-breaking escalations or unforeseen internal fractures remain the only plausible, albeit remote, paths to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,419,920Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...The near-certain trader consensus on the regime surviving through September 30 stems primarily from the brief remaining window and Iran's demonstrated institutional resilience. Leadership succession after the February 2026 killing of Ali Khamenei occurred rapidly without major military defections or state breakdown, while subsequent U.S. and Israeli strikes, economic sanctions, and January protests triggered nationalist consolidation rather than collapse. Recent government-organized rallies in mid-September further signal maintained control amid ongoing pressures. Although structural challenges such as economic strain and internal dissent persist, no verified developments in the past month point to an imminent regime-ending event before month-end. Late-breaking escalations or unforeseen internal fractures remain the only plausible, albeit remote, paths to altering the outcome.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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