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icon for Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?

Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?

icon for Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?

Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?

Ja

99% Chance
Polymarket
NEU

Ja

99% Chance
Polymarket
NEU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt with improving organization over 29°C sea surface temperatures, will reach hurricane strength (64 kt) within hours amid light vertical wind shear and high mid-level moisture. Multiple model ensembles, including SHIPS and Google DeepMind, show strong consensus for steady intensification to major hurricane status early next week before environmental conditions degrade. This robust guidance and observed structural improvements underpin the 99.5% market-implied probability for the Yes outcome. While near-certain, an abrupt shear increase or dry-air intrusion could delay the threshold crossing by a day or two, though no such signals appear in the latest analyses.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.

This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$4,797
Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Official National Hurricane Center forecasts indicate Tropical Storm Karina, currently at 60–70 kt with improving organization over 29°C sea surface temperatures, will reach hurricane strength (64 kt) within hours amid light vertical wind shear and high mid-level moisture. Multiple model ensembles, including SHIPS and Google DeepMind, show strong consensus for steady intensification to major hurricane status early next week before environmental conditions degrade. This robust guidance and observed structural improvements underpin the 99.5% market-implied probability for the Yes outcome. While near-certain, an abrupt shear increase or dry-air intrusion could delay the threshold crossing by a day or two, though no such signals appear in the latest analyses.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.

This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.

If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$4,797
Enddatum
6. Sep. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Aug 27, 2026, 5:19 PM ET

Abwicklungsquelle

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Abwickler

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Karina reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Karina reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Karina is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used. This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Karina does not reach hurricane strength by September 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".

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Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Wird sich der tropische Sturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?" mit 99%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 99¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Aug 27, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wird sich der Tropensturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?" ist „Wird sich der tropische Sturm Karina zu einem Hurrikan verstärken?" mit 99%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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