The trader consensus favoring no impeachment by June 30 stems from the absence of active House proceedings, combined with Republican control of that chamber and the procedural timeline required for articles of impeachment, a Senate trial, and final votes. With the deadline weeks away, the chamber would need to accelerate investigations, committee markups, and floor action on charges at an unprecedented pace, which historical patterns show rarely occurs absent a sudden bipartisan catalyst. Any shift would require rapid emergence of new evidence or cross-party consensus capable of overcoming majority resistance, though even then the remaining calendar leaves little margin for completion before resolution.