Trump's proposed $2,000 tariff dividend—direct payments to Americans funded by tariff revenue—remains unrealized amid legislative inaction and legal challenges, driving the 89.5% implied probability on "No" by June 30. No authorizing bill has passed Congress, and the administration has only explored executive options without concrete announcements. A May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling struck down key 10% global tariffs, threatening revenue projections essential for the payout. With six weeks left, traders price in slim odds of rapid reconciliation or appropriations amid ongoing trade disputes with Canada, Mexico, and China, prioritizing tariff implementation over rebates. Upcoming budget deadlines offer potential catalysts, but historical delays in similar stimulus favor inaction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$11,462 Vol.
$11,462 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's proposed $2,000 tariff dividend—direct payments to Americans funded by tariff revenue—remains unrealized amid legislative inaction and legal challenges, driving the 89.5% implied probability on "No" by June 30. No authorizing bill has passed Congress, and the administration has only explored executive options without concrete announcements. A May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling struck down key 10% global tariffs, threatening revenue projections essential for the payout. With six weeks left, traders price in slim odds of rapid reconciliation or appropriations amid ongoing trade disputes with Canada, Mexico, and China, prioritizing tariff implementation over rebates. Upcoming budget deadlines offer potential catalysts, but historical delays in similar stimulus favor inaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
Volumen
$11,462Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump's proposed $2,000 tariff dividend—direct payments to Americans funded by tariff revenue—remains unrealized amid legislative inaction and legal challenges, driving the 89.5% implied probability on "No" by June 30. No authorizing bill has passed Congress, and the administration has only explored executive options without concrete announcements. A May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling struck down key 10% global tariffs, threatening revenue projections essential for the payout. With six weeks left, traders price in slim odds of rapid reconciliation or appropriations amid ongoing trade disputes with Canada, Mexico, and China, prioritizing tariff implementation over rebates. Upcoming budget deadlines offer potential catalysts, but historical delays in similar stimulus favor inaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$11,462Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump's proposed $2,000 tariff dividend—direct payments to Americans funded by tariff revenue—remains unrealized amid legislative inaction and legal challenges, driving the 89.5% implied probability on "No" by June 30. No authorizing bill has passed Congress, and the administration has only explored executive options without concrete announcements. A May 7 U.S. Court of International Trade ruling struck down key 10% global tariffs, threatening revenue projections essential for the payout. With six weeks left, traders price in slim odds of rapid reconciliation or appropriations amid ongoing trade disputes with Canada, Mexico, and China, prioritizing tariff implementation over rebates. Upcoming budget deadlines offer potential catalysts, but historical delays in similar stimulus favor inaction.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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