The Liberal Party’s April 2026 by-election gains delivered a working House majority, removing any dependence on opposition support and eliminating the procedural triggers that previously enabled dissolution. With no confidence votes scheduled, legislative defeats, or leadership challenges reported, Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government faces no immediate incentive to request an early writ under the Canada Elections Act, whose fixed-date provisions point to October 2029. Traders price the outcome near certainty because majority parliaments historically avoid mid-term elections absent extraordinary crises. A sudden collapse in Liberal support, internal party revolt, or unforeseen constitutional impasse could still force reconsideration, yet none of these developments currently appear on the near-term horizon.