Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in July 2026 after three consecutive monthly declines, supported by a 75,100-job gain and slower labor-force growth from reduced immigration and retirements. Private-sector forecasts and Bank of Canada projections point to an average near 6.5% for the full year, well below 2025 peaks near 7.1% and the roughly 7% annual average recorded in 2016, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 1% amid contained tariff effects. Trader consensus for “No” at 92.5% reflects these improving labor-market data and the view that excess supply will continue to ease gradually. A sharper escalation in U.S. tariffs or renewed contraction in export-oriented sectors could still lift the rate toward 7%, though current indicators show limited immediate risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
7% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 feb 2027
Sí
7% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 feb 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in July 2026 after three consecutive monthly declines, supported by a 75,100-job gain and slower labor-force growth from reduced immigration and retirements. Private-sector forecasts and Bank of Canada projections point to an average near 6.5% for the full year, well below 2025 peaks near 7.1% and the roughly 7% annual average recorded in 2016, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 1% amid contained tariff effects. Trader consensus for “No” at 92.5% reflects these improving labor-market data and the view that excess supply will continue to ease gradually. A sharper escalation in U.S. tariffs or renewed contraction in export-oriented sectors could still lift the rate toward 7%, though current indicators show limited immediate risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Mercado abierto: Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volumen
$9,384Fecha de finalización
15 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in July 2026 after three consecutive monthly declines, supported by a 75,100-job gain and slower labor-force growth from reduced immigration and retirements. Private-sector forecasts and Bank of Canada projections point to an average near 6.5% for the full year, well below 2025 peaks near 7.1% and the roughly 7% annual average recorded in 2016, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 1% amid contained tariff effects. Trader consensus for “No” at 92.5% reflects these improving labor-market data and the view that excess supply will continue to ease gradually. A sharper escalation in U.S. tariffs or renewed contraction in export-oriented sectors could still lift the rate toward 7%, though current indicators show limited immediate risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Force Survey for any month of 2026 is higher than that of any other month since January 2017 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The resolution source for this market is the Labor Force Survey, published by Statistics Canada every month at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
Any revisions to the data after the first qualifying release will not count toward this market's resolution; only the initial figure released for each month will qualify. This market will resolve immediately upon a qualifying release of data.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Volumen
$9,384Fecha de finalización
15 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 29, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Canada’s unemployment rate stood at 6.4% in July 2026 after three consecutive monthly declines, supported by a 75,100-job gain and slower labor-force growth from reduced immigration and retirements. Private-sector forecasts and Bank of Canada projections point to an average near 6.5% for the full year, well below 2025 peaks near 7.1% and the roughly 7% annual average recorded in 2016, with GDP growth expected to stabilize around 1% amid contained tariff effects. Trader consensus for “No” at 92.5% reflects these improving labor-market data and the view that excess supply will continue to ease gradually. A sharper escalation in U.S. tariffs or renewed contraction in export-oriented sectors could still lift the rate toward 7%, though current indicators show limited immediate risk.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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