The Bank of Russia’s next key rate decision on 11 September occurs after its July cut of 25 basis points to 14 percent, the latest step in a gradual easing cycle from the 21 percent peak. Trader pricing favors no change at 62.5 percent because underlying inflation measures remain near 4–5 percent annualized while headline inflation faces upside pressure from fuel-price spikes, elevated inflation expectations, and fiscal policy that is more expansionary than earlier projected. Moderate economic growth, decelerating lending, and capacity constraints in key sectors reinforce the case for holding rates steady to anchor expectations. A further 25-basis-point cut carries 37.5 percent probability if incoming data confirm sustained disinflation and one-off factors fade, while an increase remains remote at 1.3 percent given the central bank’s forward guidance and baseline path toward lower average rates in 2027.