Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 29 by the IBGE, remains the dominant near-term catalyst anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.5–1.8% and 1.9–2.2% bands at 42% and 37.5% implied probabilities. Elevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit and moderated domestic demand, while resilient labor-market conditions, fiscal support measures, and favorable agricultural base effects provide offsetting momentum. Consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9% for the full year, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. Recent high-frequency indicators such as February economic activity and March retail sales underscore this balanced outlook, leaving the two leading outcomes in close contest ahead of the data print.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB de Brasil en el primer trimestre de 2026?
1,9%–2,2% 37.5%
1,5%–1,8% 37%
1,1%–1,4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
29 may 2026
<0,7%
2%
0,7%–1,0%
2%
1,1%–1,4%
6%
1,5%–1,8%
37%
1,9%–2,2%
38%
2.3%–2.6%
18%
≥2,7%
3%
1,9%–2,2% 37.5%
1,5%–1,8% 37%
1,1%–1,4% 5.9%
2.3%–2.6% 5.1%
$21,009 Vol.
$21,009 Vol.
29 may 2026
<0,7%
$14,390 Vol.
2%
0,7%–1,0%
$661 Vol.
2%
1,1%–1,4%
$720 Vol.
6%
1,5%–1,8%
$1,045 Vol.
37%
1,9%–2,2%
$1,635 Vol.
38%
2.3%–2.6%
$732 Vol.
18%
≥2,7%
$1,827 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 29 by the IBGE, remains the dominant near-term catalyst anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.5–1.8% and 1.9–2.2% bands at 42% and 37.5% implied probabilities. Elevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit and moderated domestic demand, while resilient labor-market conditions, fiscal support measures, and favorable agricultural base effects provide offsetting momentum. Consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9% for the full year, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. Recent high-frequency indicators such as February economic activity and March retail sales underscore this balanced outlook, leaving the two leading outcomes in close contest ahead of the data print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercado abierto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volumen
$21,009Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlBrazil’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 29 by the IBGE, remains the dominant near-term catalyst anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.5–1.8% and 1.9–2.2% bands at 42% and 37.5% implied probabilities. Elevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit and moderated domestic demand, while resilient labor-market conditions, fiscal support measures, and favorable agricultural base effects provide offsetting momentum. Consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9% for the full year, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. Recent high-frequency indicators such as February economic activity and March retail sales underscore this balanced outlook, leaving the two leading outcomes in close contest ahead of the data print.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volumen
$21,009Fecha de finalización
29 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP release, scheduled for May 29 by the IBGE, remains the dominant near-term catalyst anchoring trader sentiment in the 1.5–1.8% and 1.9–2.2% bands at 42% and 37.5% implied probabilities. Elevated Selic rates near 15% have tightened credit and moderated domestic demand, while resilient labor-market conditions, fiscal support measures, and favorable agricultural base effects provide offsetting momentum. Consensus forecasts from the IMF and Central Bank Focus survey cluster around 1.7–1.9% for the full year, consistent with sequential acceleration in Q1 followed by moderation. Recent high-frequency indicators such as February economic activity and March retail sales underscore this balanced outlook, leaving the two leading outcomes in close contest ahead of the data print.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes