Wang Mei-hui holds an 89% implied probability in the Chiayi City mayoral market due to her established local organization and name recognition as the DPP legislator for the district. The main challenger, Chang Chi-kai of the Taiwan People’s Party backed by a KMT coordination agreement, trails at 11.5% after unified opposition efforts failed to erode her support in recent polling. Multiple independents and minor candidates, including Weng Shou-liang and Chen Chia-ping, register below 1% as the race narrows to a two-candidate contest. With voting scheduled for November 28, recent campaign activity including Chang’s unsuccessful debate invitation attempt has reinforced trader views that structural advantages and voter familiarity favor the frontrunner ahead of the final weeks.