Recent confirmation of a localized Ebola outbreak in remote Ituri province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, with 246 suspected cases and 65 deaths as of mid-May 2026, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against an emergency declaration by June 30. Africa CDC and WHO surveillance reports indicate mostly unconfirmed cases clustered in two health zones near the Uganda border, with only 13 laboratory positives so far and preliminary genomic data suggesting a non-Zaire strain. Rapid case detection, combined with DRC’s experience containing prior outbreaks through contact tracing and ring vaccination, has kept transmission contained despite regional insecurity. Historical patterns show international emergencies typically require sustained cross-border spread exceeding hundreds of confirmed cases over months. While population movement and security gaps could accelerate transmission, current epidemiological indicators and upcoming WHO risk assessments point to low likelihood of meeting formal PHEIC thresholds within the six-week window.