President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current constitutional term extends through 2028, with no scheduled presidential election before then, giving traders high confidence he will remain in office past December 31, 2026. Recent developments reinforce this positioning: in April 2026 he explicitly ruled out early or interim elections, while his January declaration of 2026 as a “year of reform” and February cabinet reshuffle have tightened control over justice and interior ministries. The ruling coalition maintains a parliamentary majority sufficient to block opposition-driven challenges, and ongoing discussions within the AKP focus on long-term succession planning rather than immediate transition. These institutional and procedural factors, absent any acute health, legal, or electoral triggers, underpin the 89.5 percent implied probability that Erdoğan will stay through the end of the year.