Traders have priced Pause–Pause–Pause at a 93% implied probability because incoming data through mid-May 2026 continue to show core inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a labor market that remains resilient. January through April CPI prints, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and contained unemployment, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the June and July meetings. Market pricing also reflects the absence of any dovish shift in recent Fed communications, with officials emphasizing data dependence and caution against premature easing. While this consensus could be challenged by a sharp downside surprise in May employment or inflation figures, or by an unexpected escalation in trade-related price pressures, current fundamentals leave little room for near-term policy adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.1%
Other 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$49,000 Vol.
$49,000 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.1%
Other 3.5%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$49,000 Vol.
$49,000 Vol.
29 jul 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,596 Vol.
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 Vol.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 Vol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 Vol.
1%
Other
$1,595 Vol.
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced Pause–Pause–Pause at a 93% implied probability because incoming data through mid-May 2026 continue to show core inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a labor market that remains resilient. January through April CPI prints, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and contained unemployment, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the June and July meetings. Market pricing also reflects the absence of any dovish shift in recent Fed communications, with officials emphasizing data dependence and caution against premature easing. While this consensus could be challenged by a sharp downside surprise in May employment or inflation figures, or by an unexpected escalation in trade-related price pressures, current fundamentals leave little room for near-term policy adjustments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Volumen
$49,000Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced Pause–Pause–Pause at a 93% implied probability because incoming data through mid-May 2026 continue to show core inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a labor market that remains resilient. January through April CPI prints, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and contained unemployment, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the June and July meetings. Market pricing also reflects the absence of any dovish shift in recent Fed communications, with officials emphasizing data dependence and caution against premature easing. While this consensus could be challenged by a sharp downside surprise in May employment or inflation figures, or by an unexpected escalation in trade-related price pressures, current fundamentals leave little room for near-term policy adjustments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$49,000Fecha de finalización
29 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced Pause–Pause–Pause at a 93% implied probability because incoming data through mid-May 2026 continue to show core inflation running above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and a labor market that remains resilient. January through April CPI prints, combined with steady nonfarm payroll gains and contained unemployment, have reinforced expectations that the FOMC will leave the federal funds rate unchanged at the June and July meetings. Market pricing also reflects the absence of any dovish shift in recent Fed communications, with officials emphasizing data dependence and caution against premature easing. While this consensus could be challenged by a sharp downside surprise in May employment or inflation figures, or by an unexpected escalation in trade-related price pressures, current fundamentals leave little room for near-term policy adjustments.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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