Recent soft July CPI and nonfarm payrolls data have reinforced trader expectations for another Federal Reserve pause at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, driving the 71.5% implied probability on the Pause-Pause-Pause sequence following holds in June and July. With the target range steady at 3.5-3.75% amid core inflation near 2.5% and above-target headline readings, market-implied odds reflect caution around further tightening despite three hawkish dissents in July. A Pause-Pause-Cut path remains negligible at 0.5% given persistent price pressures and the Fed’s dual-mandate focus, while the broader “Other” category captures residual hike risks tied to upcoming labor and inflation releases before the next decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 29%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,425 Vol.
$738,425 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
29%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Other 29%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$738,425 Vol.
$738,425 Vol.
16 sep 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$290,068 Vol.
72%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$72,862 Vol.
1%
Other
$319,619 Vol.
29%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent soft July CPI and nonfarm payrolls data have reinforced trader expectations for another Federal Reserve pause at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, driving the 71.5% implied probability on the Pause-Pause-Pause sequence following holds in June and July. With the target range steady at 3.5-3.75% amid core inflation near 2.5% and above-target headline readings, market-implied odds reflect caution around further tightening despite three hawkish dissents in July. A Pause-Pause-Cut path remains negligible at 0.5% given persistent price pressures and the Fed’s dual-mandate focus, while the broader “Other” category captures residual hike risks tied to upcoming labor and inflation releases before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volumen
$738,425Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent soft July CPI and nonfarm payrolls data have reinforced trader expectations for another Federal Reserve pause at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, driving the 71.5% implied probability on the Pause-Pause-Pause sequence following holds in June and July. With the target range steady at 3.5-3.75% amid core inflation near 2.5% and above-target headline readings, market-implied odds reflect caution around further tightening despite three hawkish dissents in July. A Pause-Pause-Cut path remains negligible at 0.5% given persistent price pressures and the Fed’s dual-mandate focus, while the broader “Other” category captures residual hike risks tied to upcoming labor and inflation releases before the next decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$738,425Fecha de finalización
16 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent soft July CPI and nonfarm payrolls data have reinforced trader expectations for another Federal Reserve pause at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, driving the 71.5% implied probability on the Pause-Pause-Pause sequence following holds in June and July. With the target range steady at 3.5-3.75% amid core inflation near 2.5% and above-target headline readings, market-implied odds reflect caution around further tightening despite three hawkish dissents in July. A Pause-Pause-Cut path remains negligible at 0.5% given persistent price pressures and the Fed’s dual-mandate focus, while the broader “Other” category captures residual hike risks tied to upcoming labor and inflation releases before the next decision.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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