Polymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target—spurred by April CPI's 3.8% year-over-year rise released May 12—will not override the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady 4.3% unemployment. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices have elevated hike odds to around 30% from prior lows, aligning with banks like BofA forecasting steady policy through year-end, contrasting March dot plot medians for modest easing later. Key catalysts include June FOMC projections, May CPI, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if inflation accelerates further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,080,220 Vol.
$1,080,220 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
$1,080,220 Vol.
$1,080,220 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target—spurred by April CPI's 3.8% year-over-year rise released May 12—will not override the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady 4.3% unemployment. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices have elevated hike odds to around 30% from prior lows, aligning with banks like BofA forecasting steady policy through year-end, contrasting March dot plot medians for modest easing later. Key catalysts include June FOMC projections, May CPI, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if inflation accelerates further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$1,080,220Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target—spurred by April CPI's 3.8% year-over-year rise released May 12—will not override the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady 4.3% unemployment. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices have elevated hike odds to around 30% from prior lows, aligning with banks like BofA forecasting steady policy through year-end, contrasting March dot plot medians for modest easing later. Key catalysts include June FOMC projections, May CPI, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if inflation accelerates further.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$1,080,220Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 70.5% implied probability of no Federal Reserve rate hike in 2026, reflecting consensus that persistent inflation above the 2% target—spurred by April CPI's 3.8% year-over-year rise released May 12—will not override the FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady 4.3% unemployment. Geopolitical tensions and energy prices have elevated hike odds to around 30% from prior lows, aligning with banks like BofA forecasting steady policy through year-end, contrasting March dot plot medians for modest easing later. Key catalysts include June FOMC projections, May CPI, and nonfarm payrolls, which could shift sentiment if inflation accelerates further.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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