Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
47% probabilidad
$7,533,756 Vol.
$7,533,756 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Sí
47% probabilidad
$7,533,756 Vol.
$7,533,756 Vol.
9 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Volumen
$7,533,756Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$7,533,756Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in the July CPI release, above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient economy and solid productivity gains, has kept market-implied odds for a 2026 rate hike closely balanced near 50-50. The current federal funds rate target range of 3.50%-3.75% has held steady through five consecutive meetings, but the June dot plot showed a median projection for one hike by year-end, with futures pricing roughly a one-in-three chance of action as soon as September. Recent softening in nonfarm payrolls has tempered expectations, creating uncertainty around whether labor market cooling will outweigh sticky price pressures. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, August CPI data due September 11, and subsequent employment reports that could shift the balance toward or away from tighter policy.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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