Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?
175-199 36%
200-224 21%
150-174 17%
<150 15%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
12 jul 2026
<150
15%
150-174
17%
175-199
36%
200-224
21%
225+
13%
175-199 36%
200-224 21%
150-174 17%
<150 15%
$20,755 Vol.
$20,755 Vol.
12 jul 2026
<150
$3,954 Vol.
15%
150-174
$4,373 Vol.
17%
175-199
$3,519 Vol.
36%
200-224
$3,398 Vol.
21%
225+
$5,512 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Jul 3, 2026, 8:47 PM ET
Volumen
$20,755Fecha de finalización
12 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
This market will resolve according to the finalized total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 6, 2026, through July 12, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as data has been finalized for the final date in the specified period. If the data for the final date of the specified period has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$20,755Fecha de finalización
12 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 3, 2026, 8:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent volatility in Strait of Hormuz transits stems primarily from the fragile mid-June US-Iran memorandum of understanding, under which Washington must lift its naval blockade by July 19 while Tehran commits to restoring commercial flows. Daily passages have fluctuated sharply—ranging from lows near 13 to peaks of 55-74 amid demining progress and selective reopenings—but recurrent attacks and Iranian Revolutionary Guard warnings on unauthorized lanes have kept risk premiums elevated. This uncertainty compresses weekly aggregates around the 150-225 vessel range, with trader positioning reflecting the narrow window before potential escalation or stabilization ahead of the deadline. Oil tanker and LNG operators weigh insurance costs, AIS-dark transits, and Gulf inventory backlogs against any sustained reopening that could ease global energy supply constraints.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes