Ongoing geopolitical tensions and recent tanker attacks continue to suppress visible commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS-tracked transits averaging just 4–6 vessels daily amid a crisis now exceeding 210 days. War-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at 15–40 times peacetime levels, while Iran’s permit requirements and reported strikes on vessels using unauthorized routes deter standard operations despite limited U.S.-facilitated corridors. Dark transits, ship-to-ship transfers, and pipeline diversions sustain some oil flows near 13–16 million barrels per day, yet these do not register in conventional counts. With the week of October 5 approaching amid stalled ceasefire talks and persistent security risks, traders price the narrow 30–34 range highest at 22.5% as a modest rebound scenario, though closely contested alternatives reflect uncertainty over any near-term de-escalation or further disruptions.