Iran's political landscape remains shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, subsequent leadership transitions, and ongoing factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatic elements within the regime. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into 2026, coupled with economic pressures and external calls for regime change, have heightened scrutiny of internal stability, yet no widely reported coup attempt has materialized. Traders assign low probability to such an event by year-end due to the regime's demonstrated control over security forces and the absence of coordinated military defections or mass uprisings. Key variables to monitor include any escalation in post-war diplomatic frictions, succession disputes, or renewed protest waves that could alter the balance of power.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,122,602 Vol.
30 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
8%
$2,122,602 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$81,376 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape remains shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, subsequent leadership transitions, and ongoing factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatic elements within the regime. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into 2026, coupled with economic pressures and external calls for regime change, have heightened scrutiny of internal stability, yet no widely reported coup attempt has materialized. Traders assign low probability to such an event by year-end due to the regime's demonstrated control over security forces and the absence of coordinated military defections or mass uprisings. Key variables to monitor include any escalation in post-war diplomatic frictions, succession disputes, or renewed protest waves that could alter the balance of power.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,122,602Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape remains shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, subsequent leadership transitions, and ongoing factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatic elements within the regime. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into 2026, coupled with economic pressures and external calls for regime change, have heightened scrutiny of internal stability, yet no widely reported coup attempt has materialized. Traders assign low probability to such an event by year-end due to the regime's demonstrated control over security forces and the absence of coordinated military defections or mass uprisings. Key variables to monitor include any escalation in post-war diplomatic frictions, succession disputes, or renewed protest waves that could alter the balance of power.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,122,602Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political landscape remains shaped by the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, subsequent leadership transitions, and ongoing factional tensions between hardliners and pragmatic elements within the regime. Nationwide protests from late 2025 into 2026, coupled with economic pressures and external calls for regime change, have heightened scrutiny of internal stability, yet no widely reported coup attempt has materialized. Traders assign low probability to such an event by year-end due to the regime's demonstrated control over security forces and the absence of coordinated military defections or mass uprisings. Key variables to monitor include any escalation in post-war diplomatic frictions, succession disputes, or renewed protest waves that could alter the balance of power.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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