The Iranian regime's post-conflict consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi has reduced immediate risks of an internal power seizure. Following the February 2026 leadership transition and military strikes, the IRGC has strengthened its influence over security and decision-making without triggering open factional revolt. Recent developments, including May 2026 demands for U.S. guarantees on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz control during negotiations, plus efforts to rebuild internal security forces amid economic pressures, signal regime cohesion focused on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders view these stabilizing dynamics, alongside the absence of fresh coup signals since April rumors, as supporting the 91.5% implied probability against an attempt by June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$1,127,861 Vol.
$1,127,861 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$1,127,861 Vol.
$1,127,861 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's post-conflict consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi has reduced immediate risks of an internal power seizure. Following the February 2026 leadership transition and military strikes, the IRGC has strengthened its influence over security and decision-making without triggering open factional revolt. Recent developments, including May 2026 demands for U.S. guarantees on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz control during negotiations, plus efforts to rebuild internal security forces amid economic pressures, signal regime cohesion focused on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders view these stabilizing dynamics, alongside the absence of fresh coup signals since April rumors, as supporting the 91.5% implied probability against an attempt by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,127,861Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's post-conflict consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi has reduced immediate risks of an internal power seizure. Following the February 2026 leadership transition and military strikes, the IRGC has strengthened its influence over security and decision-making without triggering open factional revolt. Recent developments, including May 2026 demands for U.S. guarantees on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz control during negotiations, plus efforts to rebuild internal security forces amid economic pressures, signal regime cohesion focused on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders view these stabilizing dynamics, alongside the absence of fresh coup signals since April rumors, as supporting the 91.5% implied probability against an attempt by June 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,127,861Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's post-conflict consolidation under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC figures such as Ahmad Vahidi has reduced immediate risks of an internal power seizure. Following the February 2026 leadership transition and military strikes, the IRGC has strengthened its influence over security and decision-making without triggering open factional revolt. Recent developments, including May 2026 demands for U.S. guarantees on sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz control during negotiations, plus efforts to rebuild internal security forces amid economic pressures, signal regime cohesion focused on external diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Traders view these stabilizing dynamics, alongside the absence of fresh coup signals since April rumors, as supporting the 91.5% implied probability against an attempt by June 30.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes