Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying stockpiles and disrupting infrastructure while pushing U.S. intelligence estimates of breakout time to nine to twelve months or longer. IAEA assessments through June 2026 reported minimal subsequent changes, with no resumption of large-scale enrichment. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following the June 2026 memorandum of understanding have focused on verification and limits, reinforcing trader expectations that Iran lacks a viable path to a nuclear weapon by early 2027 absent major undetected advances or rapid foreign assistance. Late diplomatic breakdowns or covert restarts remain the primary variables that could shift timelines.