Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a daily minimum temperature in Austin on September 15 in the mid-to-upper 70s, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 74–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air across central Texas, limiting nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. With daytime highs forecast near 100°F and dew points in the low 70s, the boundary layer remains well mixed overnight, keeping the low close to the previous night’s reading. Historical climatology for mid-September shows an average low near 68°F, but the current anomalous warmth and lack of frontal passage explain why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 72°F while discounting any sharp drop. Updated short-range guidance and any overnight model runs could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Austin el 15 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Austin el 15 de septiembre?
69°F o menos 51%
88°F o más 49%
82-83°F 39%
76-77°F 30%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
69°F o menos
51%
70-71°F
2%
72-73°F
22%
74-75°F
30%
76-77°F
30%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
21%
82-83°F
39%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88°F o más
49%
69°F o menos 51%
88°F o más 49%
82-83°F 39%
76-77°F 30%
NUEVO
NUEVO
15 sep 2026
69°F o menos
$20 Vol.
51%
70-71°F
$98 Vol.
2%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
22%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
30%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
30%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
21%
82-83°F
$10 Vol.
39%
84-85°F
$10 Vol.
17%
86-87°F
$10 Vol.
17%
88°F o más
$10 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a daily minimum temperature in Austin on September 15 in the mid-to-upper 70s, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 74–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air across central Texas, limiting nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. With daytime highs forecast near 100°F and dew points in the low 70s, the boundary layer remains well mixed overnight, keeping the low close to the previous night’s reading. Historical climatology for mid-September shows an average low near 68°F, but the current anomalous warmth and lack of frontal passage explain why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 72°F while discounting any sharp drop. Updated short-range guidance and any overnight model runs could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volumen
$158Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a daily minimum temperature in Austin on September 15 in the mid-to-upper 70s, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 74–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air across central Texas, limiting nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. With daytime highs forecast near 100°F and dew points in the low 70s, the boundary layer remains well mixed overnight, keeping the low close to the previous night’s reading. Historical climatology for mid-September shows an average low near 68°F, but the current anomalous warmth and lack of frontal passage explain why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 72°F while discounting any sharp drop. Updated short-range guidance and any overnight model runs could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$158Fecha de finalización
15 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and private model consensus points to a daily minimum temperature in Austin on September 15 in the mid-to-upper 70s, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 74–79°F bins. Persistent southerly flow advects warm, moist Gulf air across central Texas, limiting nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies and light winds. With daytime highs forecast near 100°F and dew points in the low 70s, the boundary layer remains well mixed overnight, keeping the low close to the previous night’s reading. Historical climatology for mid-September shows an average low near 68°F, but the current anomalous warmth and lack of frontal passage explain why traders assign low probability to outcomes below 72°F while discounting any sharp drop. Updated short-range guidance and any overnight model runs could refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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