Persistent cloud cover, showers, and high humidity from the prevailing monsoon flow are keeping overnight radiative cooling limited in Taipei, anchoring the Aug 25 minimum near 24–26 °C according to the latest Central Weather Bureau guidance and ensemble model consensus. Daytime heating remains modest under overcast skies, with forecast lows of 23–25 °C aligning closely with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities around those values; historical August minima average 25–26 °C but recent wet patterns have suppressed them. Traders are weighting the 24–26 °C band most heavily because any break in cloud cover or shift in steering winds could allow a sharper drop, while continued rain favors the upper end of that range. Fresh model updates expected overnight will likely determine whether probabilities shift toward 23 °C or hold near 25–26 °C.