**SPD maintains a strong position as the likely second-place finisher in the September 20, 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag election.** Recent opinion polls from Infratest dimap and INSA through July 2026 show AfD consistently leading at 35–36 percent, with SPD holding steady in second at 28–29 percent, followed by Linke around 11–12 percent and CDU near 9–10 percent. This ordering has remained stable across multiple surveys since March, reflecting AfD strength in eastern Germany and SPD incumbency advantages under Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. Traders assign SPD an 86.5 percent implied probability of finishing second, consistent with the polling gap to third place and limited evidence of late momentum shifts for other parties. Minor parties including Grüne, FDP, BSW, and FW remain below or near the 5 percent threshold in surveys, reducing their prospects for second place. AfD’s 12.8 percent probability aligns with its frontrunner status, while CDU, Linke, and others show negligible chances of overtaking SPD in current trends. No major campaign events or polling changes in the past month have altered this consensus.