Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-20
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-20
$34,940 Vol.
$34,940 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
95%
Partido Republicano
4%
$34,940 Vol.
$34,940 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$16,177 Vol.
95%
Partido Republicano
$18,762 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$34,940Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$34,940Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko holds a commanding position in New York's 20th congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election. The Capital Region seat carries a D+8 partisan lean and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, reinforced by Tonko's long tenure and uncontested primary. His Republican opponent, Ralph Ambrosio, remains lightly funded with limited statewide profile, leaving few catalysts for a competitive race. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these fundamentals, including the district's voting history and lack of recent polling shifts or major events that would alter the balance. Late developments such as an unexpected national wave, candidate health issues, or significant scandals could still narrow the gap, though the structural advantages make such reversals unlikely.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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